Sometime this summer, I have plans to go offline for a while. While I am away, Russia and NATO will go to war. This was my vision. Ukraine will collapse in a matter of weeks and will be unable to resist full occupation. Russian troops race westward. Meanwhile, Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary use this collapse as an excuse to protect Western Ukraine from Russian occupation. That is their justification, and the area around Lviv and Lutsk is occupied by these countries. They are motivated by historical interest and also wanting a buffer with Russia.

The problem is, with an indefinite border between these two occupied zones, there is bound to be trouble. Initially, an unoccupied area existed between both lines. In the chaos, either an accident or some kind of false flag occurs which allows the NATO bloc to declare war on Russia.

These events happen very quickly, but Russia decides to wage a scorched earth war with no respect to international agreements. To them, this war is existential for the survival of there country and NATO are seen as invaders, so expect all type of carnage. In my vision, Russia had the most success in the Baltic theater. I don’t know why this is without looking at what kind of fleet they have there. But quickly they move through the open terrain of Poland and into eastern Germany. This coincided with a powerful advance in Scandinavia, Russia might have occupied most of Sweden.

In the southern front, around Romania, Moldova, the Black Sea, most things seemed to be at a standstill. Russia does not make significant gains here for some reason.

Another interesting development is that North Korea and South Korea are at war in this timeline. Perhaps South Korea and Japan join against Russia in the pacific, and North Korea uses this as an opportunity for reunification with help from Russia. They are largely successful and capture towns all the way at the southern tip of the peninsula.

China looks like it is still neutral for now, although not much time has passed.

The speed of all these events will come as a shock because it goes beyond what anyone was expecting.

A week ago, I would have thought this was ridiculous, but since the Zolotoe encirclement and the Kaliningrad blockade, now I am not so sure.

My thought was that the defense of Lisichansk would last into September, meaning the Ukraine war could go on into the winter. What has just happened in the Zolotoe area makes me reevaluate. Russia has clearly picked up the pace without risking casualties. Lisichansk may already be effectively encircled where there are UA 8,000 soldiers and an embarassing amount of western equipment. This may be the beginning of a phase 3 of the war.

And yet it seems like Ukraine cannot negotiate or surrender everything. The government makes it clear they will fight to the end, but troops are of low morale. In addition, Zelensky is fighting with the head of the SBU. There is some kind of internal power struggle to the government and the state could see a transition of power or a collapse, which complicates the defense.

So #1 I am now of the mind that this vision is not so extreme with regards to Ukraine. It could all be over by the end of the summer at the earliest. I don’t know if that is most likely, but it is a possibility that this week has revealed itself.

I think the ruling class of the NATO countries don’t really appreciate this. They are high on their own supply of propaganda. So these leaders will be very shocked if a quick collapse of Ukraine’s defense occurs, especially because many of these people think Ukraine is still going to win.

By this time, winter will be around the corner, and Russia will have projected control of Ukraine’s agriculture and natural gas resources and infrastructure, exacerbating these shortages on the globe. Many EU countries are already cut off from Russian gas. Every crisis that has been foreshadowed will then come to a head; the recession, shortages, inflation. Leaders will find a real dilemma where they face removal in some form. This has already happened in some countries.

So #2 I don’t think an erratic response from NATO would be too crazy either. Post war Russia will truly be a beast. Russia will have Europe by the balls with a battle hardened army to flex. The world now knows Russia does not make empty threats. Europe is in dire need of resources from Russia with only two options: get Russia to submit or strike a deal on mutually beneficial terms. By failing the first option, they have closed off the second option. So they can only double down on trying to get Russia under the boot.

I think some already recognize that Ukraine is no longer a security threat to Russia, and does not work as a form of coercion. This is why the Kaliningrad blockade is happening. There must always be a front to prevent Russia’s rise whether economic or military with a proxy war through Ukraine. In the event that these problems for Russia are solved, what will Europe do? Do they have any other option besides a hot war with Russia?

My mind is now changed. I considered a broader war against Russia of low probability, but that low probability still being far too high. Like a car crash, it seems like it should happen constantly, but there are traffic rules and every driver has an interest to avoid accident even when one has to swerve erratically. Similarly, there are international laws, and every country wants to avoid world war despite conflicting concerns. But because of Russia’s success of backing Europe and the imperial core into a corner, I now believe the possibility of all out war to be more likely than not. NATO also underestimates Russia militarily which increases this probability.

So #3, what would happen next? I suspect in the event that this war begins, the structural integrity of NATO as a military block will be revealed, and I believe it will not completely hold fast. Would a country like Hungary or Turkey really risk the destruction of their country to fight an expensive war against Russia over some bullshit? I think not. I think NATO nations that are uncompromised will do what ever is in their national interest, and a handful of countries will break away in this event, choosing to stay neutral.

War games in the past have revealed NATO would lose decisively to Russia in Europe. But now we have seen Russia’s military in action. It is hard to know how that data qualifies that assessment because there are so many contradictory opinions about what Ukraine says about Russia’s military. The chaotic nature of the necessary pre-predictions make the act of predicting the outcome of such a war pointless in my opinion. The conditions of that hypothetical war are downstream from too many undecided and unknowable events. I am agnostic about this, so for now, I will say the early outcome of my vision is possible, although Russia quickly succeeding against Finland seems implausible at the moment.

What is missing from my vision is a new Cuba crisis, which I think would have to occur.