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Russia may win this war in the conventional sense. They may take Kiev, install a Russia-friendly government, and even have military forces occupying the country to keep the terrorists from simply walking in and overthrowing them. But the West will do all they can to spread civil unrest in the populace, to get them to side with the russophobes, to fund and arm those russophobes, and to recreate this same model in all of Russia’s neighboring countries. I’m not sure you can actually “win” the style of war the imperialists wage nowadays unless the imperialists lose wholesale. If the US and its lackeys keep channeling their propaganda in a region, keep throwing their money in a region, keep arming fascists in a region, then you have an infection you can’t control. And if you crack down and secure it, it makes your liberalized population sympathetic to the fascists because they can’t see or comprehend the threat to their sovereignty or lives. This is the game the West plays and has played for decades, and I don’t think its going to end until the head is cut off the snake and the fascists are cut off from their platforms and funding.
Of course, everyone here knows this. How this is going to turn out for Ukraine, who can say? The terrorists might slip the leash and attack Europe, immediately turning everyone off from the whole thing and giving Russia a needed reprieve. I suspect Russia may win the war, but the peace will be a grueling and draining affair for years, until the US is forced to divert resources elsewhere and the fascists are forced to go underground as their funding dries up.
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I don’t doubt that. But I don’t doubt that it’s going to need to be a thorough victory to prevent the West from having anything to fund further action with. In the end, this is all speculation.
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It’s a mistake to focus on Ukraine as the core of the conflict. Geopolitical outcome of the war is far more relevant. We’re seeing much of the world turning away from the west now, and BRICS is already a larger economy than the G7. The trend will be for western economic bloc to shrink and for BRICS to grow. This will cause a deep economic crisis in the west, and I’d argue we’re already seeing the start of it happening. Current political system in the west is already unstable, and I don’t think it will survive the crisis.
Meanwhile, Russia doesn’t have to take all of Ukraine. An alternative scenario to consider is that Russia takes the territory that’s largely populated by Russian speakers where there will be little support for any kind of insurgency. They will likely cut off remaining rump state of Ukraine from the sea by going through Odessa and connecting to Transnistria.
The remaining territory of Ukraine will be cut off from most of the industrial and agricultural areas, and it’s populated by hardcore nationalists who will be very bitter with the west abandoning them. If the west allows western Ukraine fail then Europe will be faced with a flood of refugees feeding further into the current economic crisis. However, continuing propping western Ukraine up will become an economic black hole for the west.
That makes sense. But wouldn’t leaving the rump state invite the fascists back into power? Does the gained territory really offer much of a buffer for Russia if what’s left of Ukraine keeps getting funded by the West to agitate the region?
The rump state is not going to be very easy for Russia to destabilize, and eventually Russia will likely end up with a puppet regime there. There’s already precedent for this in Chechnya right now. Meanwhile, the buffer Russia gains comes from the fact that whatever is left of Ukraine will not be able to join NATO. Whatever is left of Ukraine will be demilitarized going forward.
Again, makes sense.
USA accepts the end of their hegemony like a good sport.
Lmao.
USA v. China suicide charge. Maybe some bullying of Mexico. And then the imperialism will have absolutely no options but to turn inward. And this desecrated land will bleed itself until all the toxins are expelled.
I think Russia’s fate depends a lot on how they choose to proceed independently of external forces. It really will be a toss up between decaying into an imperialist power, or a reinstatement of the socialist Union.
I do find it concerning how pretty much every presidential candidate is running on the promise of going to war with somebody in the near future. Either Russia, China or Mexico. Maybe some more incursions into Africa in the mean time.
- Like a true loser the US and UK will make it seem like they left of their own accord.
- Half of Ukraine will be a Russian-controlled oblast.
- Europe moves on, and increasingly allies with China and Russia over the US, and accepts the new oblast.
Like a true loser the US and UK will make it seem like they left of their own accord.
If Vietnam is any indication, they will pretend they left of their own accord, but will also perpetrate a stab-in-the back myth: “those damn tankies and Russia dupes sold out America and our Ukrainian allies!” Eventually, the war will be impossible to discuss, because the only accepted narrative will be that we won and lost at the same time.
Doublethink, one might even call it.
It will be the publics fault for lack of support. We didn’t Slava Ukraine enough for them.
Yep, that’s exactly what the official narrative on Vietnam is. It’s ironic, because “lack of support” in historical context means “the US public stopped being keen on the war once they realized that they, or their sons, husbands, boyfriends, etc., could be sent to die halfway across the world.” Isn’t agitating for your own interests what people are supposed to do in a liberal democracy, at least in theory and according to the propaganda?
Isn’t agitating for your own interests what people are supposed to do in a liberal democracy, at least in theory and according to the propaganda?
Unfortunately, the only people on the right of Stalin that still remember that are libertarians, and they don’t believe in any democracy anyway because egoism, Ayn Rand etc. For the rest, democracy is about Doing The Right Thing, as media tell them.
Oh and of course the people who dictate those Right Things, that is the lobby groups.
I expect there’s going to be a massive political upheaval in Europe, and possibly in US as well. Losing the war will be the backdrop for the economic crash that western economies are now entering. People were sold on a quick war that was supposed to secure western dominance over the world. There wasn’t supposed to be any significant economic blowback in the west, but now people are increasingly connecting the war with their declining standard of living. This is now translating into a political backlash against the people who championed the war.
The west will see itself deeply humiliated, they will have to come to terms with the fact that majority of the world does not stand with the west and actively resents western system. This is going to be a hard pill to swallow for people who’ve been taught all their lives that they’re cream of the crop of humanity.
The big question is where the west is headed once the current system implodes. Unfortunately, all the indicators are that western countries are increasingly flirting with fascism and the right is growing rapidly. Unless the left becomes a lot better at organizing and recruiting, we’ll likely see full blown fascism taking hold shortly.
Lucy: It’ll be a quick war, Charlie Brown!
In and out, a quick adventure.
Home by Christmas (but which Christmas?)…
but now people are increasingly connecting the war with their declining standard of living. This is now translating into a political backlash against the people who championed the war.
Could you elaborate on this? I dont follow. How is our standaed of living connected to this war?
The most obvious way is that productive resources are being directed towards Ukraine rather then being invested domestically. For example, if a country chooses so open a factory to produce artillery shells instead of building hospitals, then this has an impact on the standard of living. The less direct impact comes from the economic war with Russia where western economies are starting see sever economic blowback. Europe in particular has seen a huge increase in energy prices, and this translates into the economic problems we’re currently seeing. The rise of BRICS and dedollarization also have an impact as this shrinks dollar based economy.
Ah that makes sense. In the US, I don’t hear a lot of chatter blaming the war for our woes, just the usual partisan politics stuff
regardless which side wins, ukraine is going to be THE place to set up industries to exploit cheap labour in europe.
I expect a lot of child exploitation.
the bread and butter of western economy
europe going full fascist once again, with the excuse they need to defend themselves from “soviet union”
It really depends on the terms of the loss. There’s the potential for stabbed in the back anger from the Nazis there that turns violent against Western Europe, there’s also the possibility that’s avoided and instead they conduct decades of terrorist attacks against Russia with the west’s continued support.
I’m somewhat doubtful Zelensky will be reasonable, so Russia may have to choose between a costly offensive that takes Kiev and chases the government to the west while degrading it or a frozen conflict with Donbas and other newly Russian regions under Russian control but disputed and not recognized as such in the west or by Ukraine. Because Zelensky knows he’ll have a chopper and a plane waiting for him even if Kiev falls whereas if he negotiates the Nazis there or the CIA will kill him.
We’re already seeing fascists in the European Union and NATO calling for more expansion eastward and calling it imperative and a necessity. So I suspect color revolution attempts in CIS countries like Georgia, the -stans. They’ve already pulled shit in Armenia. The goal being to distract and overcome Russia by pushing up to their borders in too many places for them to militarily defend at once with their limited troops.
Long-term I think they want enlargement to indoctrinate the peoples there with anti-Russia sentiment and eventually throw them into a grand conflict with Russia to cause enough internal trouble, instability and profit loss to allow a coup to replace Putin with someone more pliant to the west. They’re not giving up, there are degrees of success for the US and though Ukraine hasn’t succeeded as much as they hoped they’ve in some way’s strengthened their hand by pulling Europe inescapably into their orbit it seems (reactionary populism though could undo that in the next decade or two).
Edit The west is very guileful, very dangerous. They suspect they’re not strong enough to pin and hold down Russia and China, let alone defeat them. So instead they implement a short-medium-term plan to create armies against Russia, to put down propaganda and create a sea of hostility around them that can be used to pin them while leaving all of the imperial core and NATO resources free to go after China. They are not bad strategists.
Combine all the fallout of the collapse of democratic Afghanistan and the seething anger from Vietnam
seething anger from Vietnam
Except this time I hope the veterans actually get spit on.
“democratic” Afghanistan? There was only one democratic Afghanistan and that was the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan.
That’s the one I’m referring to. the treatment of the mujahideen by the west of the day is eerily similar to the wests current support for groups like azov.
Oh, I also thought you meant the botched Afghanistan withdrawal. Makes more sense. Although the withdrawal additionally shows that Americans have the memory of goldfish.
I think that’s very hard to predict. It depends on what happens in Russia and abroad. I’m sure there will probably be a new government and concessions given to Russia. Hopefully Donbas will become fully independent after the war
Donbass is a part of Russia now, the referendum has been held, it has been officially annexed, the status of the new republics enshrined in the constitution. It will not become independent again, and the people there do not want independence, they wanted to be part of Russia. The de facto independence phase was a compromise they had to settle for because Russia wouldn’t accept them yet as long as they still held out hope that Ukraine would abide by the Minsk accords. That phase ended after the negotiations failed last year.
I’m curious what would happen after the current war-time surge of jingoism cools down in Russia and people notice their material conditions do not improve
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Same thing as when the US lost in Afghanistan. Lots of cry babies and that’s basically it. All these countries are just chess pieces to them.
Blowback season 10 or so will be dope. Especially because most of us witnessed it first hand.