Analysts expect nearly a 40% decline in EV battery prices between 2023 and 2025, and for EVs to “reach breakthrough levels in terms of cost parity” with internal-combustion vehicles in some markets as early as next year—without subsidies. That’s due to lower materials cost and the effect of a current stagnation in EV sales allowing supply to catch up with demand, according to the analysis.

Battery prices will continue to fall significantly through 2025 and more or less level off after that, analysts predict. And that could allow EVs to reach larger market shares more quickly. Goldman analysts now predict that EVs could reach 50% market share in the U.S. by 2030, and 68% in the European Union by that year.