Laymans media
https://www.space.com/climate-change-termination-event-end-ice-age
Academic source
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GB007875
Plain Language Summary Atmospheric methane’s unprecedented current growth, which in part may be driven by surging wetland emissions, has strong similarities to ice core methane records during glacial-interglacial “termination” events marking global reorganizations of the planetary climate system. Here we compare current and termination-event methane records to test the hypothesis that a termination-scale change may currently be in progress.
ABSTRACT
Atmospheric methane’s rapid growth from late 2006 is unprecedented in the observational record. Assessment of atmospheric methane data attributes a large fraction of this atmospheric growth to increased natural emissions over the tropics, which appear to be responding to changes in anthropogenic climate forcing. Isotopically lighter measurements of 13Cch4 are consistent with the recent atmospheric methane growth being mainly driven by an increase in emissions from microbial sources, particularly wetlands. The global methane budget is currently in disequilibrium and new inputs are as yet poorly quantified. Although microbial emissions from agriculture and waste sources have increased between 2006 and 2022 by perhaps 35 Tg/yr, with wide uncertainty, approximately another 35–45 Tg/yr of the recent net growth in methane emissions may have been driven by natural biogenic processes, especially wetland feedbacks to climate change. A model comparison shows that recent changes may be comparable or greater in scale and speed than methane’s growth and isotopic shift during past glacial/interglacial termination events. It remains possible that methane’s current growth is within the range of Holocene variability, but it is also possible that methane’s recent growth and isotopic shift may indicate a large-scale reorganization of the natural climate and biosphere is under way.
One way to conceptualize the scale
Another way
Pulling back even further like a million years shows the “global reorganizations of the planetary climate system”. There was a regular pattern of ice ages and interglacial periods the Earth had fallen into, giving rise to stable periods, the last one being why we exist as we are and could develop agriculture and civilization. That pattern is over now thanks to the catalyst of human influence. The Earth will eventually settle into a new “normal”, but it will not be anything we are familiar with. It might be so different than even past hothouses that we can’t even draw from history thanks to the rate of change we’ve artificially sparked.
Yep. Buckle up.
About a year ago I was walking around with someone down near the river, just a nice place with open grass and some charming buildings off in the distance, and all of a sudden I started getting pretty emotional, like almost crying. She didn’t know me as a super-emotional guy and was confused, and I related to her what made me upset – basically, all of this is going away. In 50-100 years this little paradise place is gone. Guaranteed. I don’t know how long exactly it’ll be or what will be here instead, but it definitely won’t be this nice grass and the well-kept buildings and boats on the river.
I like the place, it’s wonderful; and it’s going away, not to come back. Not that long from now.
I’ve been feeling that for a little while too. I’m basically in a “enjoy it while you can” mindset. After fucking around for so long were about to find out, and probably quicker than people think.
But noobmaster69 in politics told me everything will be fine.
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And when I’ve talked to those a fair amount older than me, and they tell me how my “nice” is incredibly sad and denuded and dead by the standards of what they remember… The short memory of mankind, our brief lifespans.
specifically the weather before WWI was said to be much more pleasant and reliable.
Happened to me in a grocery store. Not as romantic as yours.
@TokenBoomer
"Landsailor
Deepwinter strawberry
Endless summer, ever spring
A vast preserve
Aisle after aisle in reach
Every commoner made a king
Earthbreaker
Noble and prized
Feed me beyond my means
Hello, worldmaker
Never deny
Build all my wildest dreams
But there’s a storm outside your door
I’m a child no more…"
(Vienna Teng, “Landsailor”)
@mo_ztt
That was beautiful
My peripheral vision wisely read that as “cataclysm”.
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