Obviously it’s a process that is always brewing under capitalism but you know what I mean. Do you think we are close, like within 5 to 10 years close to a major declaration of war between the imperial core and the periphery or something of the sort? Would you argue it’s already started?
I see Palestine liberating itself, I see solidarity with them along the people, I see the ripples that the Ukraine conflict has started, I see more and more revolutionary sentiment building. Could be an experience bias because now I’m more involved in real life so I see it more, but things just seem to be accelerating and I’m here for it. Much work needs to be done to capitalize and educate/funnel us all towards a progressive revolution and not a reactionary one, but I’m ready
I think a revolution of sorts is visibly underway, though it’s not necessarily, strictly, a proletarian revolution (it does involve it in many regions, and it paves the way for it in other parts of the world).
It’s a revolution of nations against the system of Anglo-European, white supremacist, imperialist empire and hegemony- a revolution that, in the face of both the unparalleled evil of the crackerverse, and the empire’s decline- is seeing disenfranchised, exploited, and divided nations from across the global south and (parts of) eastern Europe- of all sorts, communists, liberals, Islamists, monarchies, even the proto-fascists like the Hindutvas- coming together for one beautiful common goal, to free the world (and primarily themselves) once and for all from the scourge of humanity that is western imperialism.
Whether world war will come out of that is another matter. I don’t really dare say one way or another, TBH- I’d like to hope things can reach a point where the west can be properly contained and their present state institutions dissolved if need be (IMO it will be needed for the west to ever rejoin the rest of humanity). I’m not so optimistic as to say that’s how things will go, though.
“Crackerverse” I fucking love that term.
I really love your overall comment though. I do have some lite criticism though. This might not mean much coming from me, and this is a problem I share blame for as well, and it’s extremely hard to predict and plan for the future, but I feel that the genuine left isn’t doing near as much as we should in the grand scheme of things. It’s amazing that capitalism is so close to collapse, but I’m very worried that just because many people will be cheering for it, that we need to root out and exterminate the right-wingers, monarchists, fascists and other douchebags alongside the collapse, otherwise they will take advantage of the collapse, if they can’t be persuaded otherwise.
I believe that the ultimate battle for the future of humanity is coming soon, and I am cautiously optimistic.
Maybe a war first and then a revolution. Or a revolution during the war.
If 2023 has shown us anything it is that the rest of the world can and will stand up against the West. And that The West isn’t the unbeatable force the pretend to be. With this much tension happening in the world, with Palestine and its surrounding allies, China again saying reunification with Taiwan is inevitable, China’s BRI in Africa and the rise of BRICS and of course Russia I do think we will see war between the west and others at some point soon.
Because with the rise of fascism in Europe and the US I don’t think they will go out without a fight.
I’ve said it before, and I don’t mean to be a doomsayer or present myself as having foreknowledge (my grandma thinks I’m [psychic though) but I feel in my bones that something BIG is coming this year in 2024, for better and worse. A big “moment” that signals the forward trajectory of this planet, or a series of moments. I believe that at our current technological level and with the global world order on the edge of collapse, the ultimate battle for the future of humanity and life on Earth in general is fast approaching, or at least fast in the grand scheme of things.
I’m concerned and excited and pessimistic and hopeful.
I get the same sense of living in a twilight zone. It’s like the world has taken a collective deep breath and we won’t know what will happen until the out-breath. Maybe that won’t be in 2024. But the longer the world holds in that breath, the more force it will be expelled with.
Beautiful way of putting it
ive had similar feelings in years past… big things happen all the time whether or not we hear about them or even understand their ramifications until much later on
I don’t know about revolution, but in the Middle East events are now unfolding that can’t be undone. Yemen, Iran and Israel are going to have a direct conflict in the very near future. Taiwan is happening eventually, but China is smart enough to wait and Ukraine/Russia is literally just us exhausting ourselves by giving all this equipment to a losing cause. It’s funny in an ironic way, when you think of how history is taught in the states I bet no one ever thought that the US would be the aggressor in WW3. But that’s what’s happening, the Biden admin isn’t “sleepwalking” into a World War this is 100% the plan.
i think historians in the future will consider the conflicts in syria or ukraine the start of WW3
I think it’s possible, but I think this is more of a prelude than the actual war.
I think it’s possible, but I don’t think it’s likely.
World War isn’t in the Global South’s interests. Multipolarity is giving them opportunity to prosper.
World War might be the last option left for preserving Western Hegemony, but the decision on their side won’t be made in the interests of preserving Western Hegemony, it’ll be made in the interests of the capitalist class that controls it. And for them, war is a gamble. They’ll only gamble if they don’t see any other way.
And tbh I think this is why Israel is going off-script. They know the USA’s empire is shrinking, they know that the USA won’t be able to afford propping up a puppet in West Asia for much longer, and they know how the USA treats allies that have outlived their usefulness. The Zionists are gambling because they know they don’t get to keep their Zion if things continue to progress peacefully towards decolonization.
World War might be the last option left for preserving Western Hegemony,
It’s the only conceivable option, but it still couldn’t save capitalism.
I don’t think the kind of World War 3 most people envision with nukes flying everywhere is ever going to happen but I do think we’re in the beginning stages of a new major world conflict and it’s alarming.
Totally agree.
I’m not as optimistic. Proxy war leads to conventional war leads to nuclear war.
big changes, most definitely.
socialists revolution, i don’t think so, as far as i know the only ongoing revolutionary process is in the philipines, meanwhile most of the world pcs are having a hard time rebuilding a movement, for example recently the brazilian communist party had a split
We’ll know by the end of the year. I’ll spare you all the reports from my astrologer friends, but I’d say it’s all going to hinge on the US elections this year, as well as the 50 other major elections worldwide. If the decrepit establishment of the US empire think that they could lose the election to a political outsider, I’d say we can expect a major false flag or a huge war to justify not surrendering their power. Probably against Iran but who knows.
These maniacs have it in their mind that they have to take all these nations down before 2030, when they reckon they’ll be too weak to fight them.
Failing that, I think they’ll fall back on their lessons from post-WWII. If enough nations are in ruins, then you can flood them with money, buy up all their companies, and have them utterly dependant on your exports. Hell, we can already see it happening with all these German companies and Taiwanese Semi-conductor industry.
I’m also thinking about Germany mulling madatory conscription, the constant headlines from European states that they need to get ready for another continental war. Isn’treal trying to start a major conflict with Hezbolla, Yemen and Iran, plus the constant Taiwan rattle-sabering.
My one hope is, in the universes consistent rule of irony, that the West with its already near total deindustrialisation and gig economy, that the beast is already far to decayed to pull any of this off. That and our rulers are dumber than a bag of rocks.
in the universes consistent rule of irony,
It’s called dialectics, the universality of contradiction. The accumulation of great masses of surplus capital leads to a crumbling economy.
I agree in general, but I’d like to add that WWII was a new lease on life for capitalism. It was pushed to the brink of its limits of capital accumulation culminating in the Great Depression. There was a great mass of surplus capital that hindered production. The wars destroyed that surplus by decimating European industry. This essentially set back capitalism to a time when the profit margins were higher due to high portions of variable capital. The US got lucky in this scenario as it’s capital remained in tact, so it was able to export and become rich of the new imperial vassals it exported to. Imperialism is the export of capital to places where the rate of profit is higher.
I won’t pretend I’m an expert, I just recently read ‘socialism or extinction.’
Oy vey. Well lets hope that wont happen again, but I doubt that the US is going to really be personally be affected by by any conflict it starts. Beyond all the dead poor people they throw into whatever meat grinder they get going.
Also I might have to give that book a read.
I wouldn’t bet on the empire having a chance. The drive to war is only harming capitalism at this point, though also a lot of real people. Definitely read it.
U.S. Elections will be weird with this whole Trump ballot fiasco. Will he be banned on more ballots? Will he be written in? Will delegates and superdelegates even respect Write-in votes? Will Biden finally fucking die before the election? So many questions
He’s only being blocked in democrat states, so it won’t matter.
Idk, Colorado has always been a swing/Republican State, and that’s where this began. I admit that most of the other states are Dem, but still the question remains, will (super)delegates concede to write-ins? I’m not as big of a history-buff as I would like to be, but isn’t that unprecedented(actual question, not rhetorical)? Having a write-in candidate being a majority or at least a sizeable percentage of the vote? Seems like it isn’t a very stable system of governance if they don’t recognize write-in votes as legitimate when they expressly allow it
I want to know your astrologer friend, do they have a channel?
Fraid not, they’re a swamp witch back home. But the Astrology Podcast can be okay. I just have to find some lefty astrologers online.
I would love to see more Marxist astrologist
I followed one in Twitter during the pandemic that’s as amazing.
I would love to pick it up myself but I’m busy at the moment learning something else
I’m no fortune teller, but I’m certain decades will continue to happen in weeks. I just finished reading Socialism or Extinction and Ted Reese clearly shows how falling rate of profit is making the final crisis of capitalism highly likely in the coming years. The imperial core is incredibly weakened by its overgrowth of excess capital. They are getting increasingly desperate and the drive to war is actually deepening the crisis. There is no getting out of it for capitalism, and socialism is the only way out for the species. If we can keep getting more organized and spreading clear and consistent theory we can win. I highly recommend the book, I just wish there was a post Covid version. I’ve sent it to friends and family in the hope they’ll like it as much as I do. If people understand why socialism is the only real option they will choose it.
The core isn’t unified enough to wage war. It’s not unlikely there will actually be Inter-bourgeois conflict.
One more thing, SoE references multiple times that the Bolsheviks only had 8,000 members just months before the revolution. That is a comforting fact.
It’s not unlikely there will actually be inter-bourgeois conflict
That’s kind of what I mean. Like others have said, I don’t see nukes flying/world ending scenario anytime soon, but large redistribution of power and yes, bourgeois infighting which will create perfect conditions for a revolution.
Wow, that Bolshevik fact is seriously comforting.
Lots of people care but don’t have the time or energy right now. When more are immiserated they will be in the streets. Even if they actually don’t need us because of AI and such all that means is a far greater base for us to work with.
Capitalism will consume itself. As socialists, we have be ready so that when it does, society will be turning to socialism as the solution and not fascism.
Fascism is still capitalism, it is just in extreme decay. The state does every possible thing to maintain capitalism without holding back to save face. It cannot last. If it wins it just means a more miserable road to extinction.
That is true, but I feel like there needs to be a distinction between capitalism and capitalism in decay. So I used the term fascism, as it helps get my intent across.
The unjust world economic structure has been shaken and a world war is inevitable.
I would argue that the process has indeed started. We’re seeing US being humiliated on every front, and it’s becoming increasingly clear that the emperor has no clothes.
At the same time, China continues to go from strength to strength and BRICS is becoming a whole alternative economy.
I expect we’ll see a lot of amazing things happening where the grip of the empire has been loosened. We’re already seeing Africa starting to become decolonized, US being pushed out of the Middle East and from Latin America. These trends will only become stronger and reinforce themselves.
I do think that things in the west will keep getting worse before they start getting better. I completely agree that education on why the system is failing is and what to do about it are the key tasks for communists in the west right now.
Another important bit of education is to help deprogram people from hating existing socialist states like China. It’s going to be crucially important to be able to point to these as successes of socialism to be learned from as opposed to be feared.
As well as mistakes. One of the big criticisms I have is China being too soft on the bourgeoisie and how LGBT ppl were treated in some socialist countries.
For sure, and in general I think it’s important to understand that whatever form socialism takes in any particular country is going to be rooted in its history, culture, social norms, and existing material conditions. Every socialist nation develops in its own way, so the things we need to look at are general transferable ideas that can be implemented in the local context.
The forcing event will and already is climate change. At some point pood production will be dramatically affected and all the existing systems will snap. Hunger is the motivation that actually causes change from with in.
In India we have casteism and hindutva fascism.
Hmm, some new material for uncontrolled Blowback… on the other hand, though the Western hegemony may not die in a mushroom cloud, but in a prolonged struggle secession…