Ukrainian offensive is effectively over now. The end result after four months is that Russia ended up gaining more territory than Ukraine. Western weapons have been largely depleted, and Ukraine suffered significant casualties in the process.

Meanwhile, it looks like Russia has started probing all across the front to see where the weak spots are. They’ve had success around Avdeevka in particular. It looks like there’s a cauldron shaping that could result in Avdeevka getting cut off from resupplies.

I expect that these are shaping operations that are going to be a prelude to a bigger offensive once the ground hardens in a couple of months. We probably won’t see anything dramatic until then.