This whole story is beyond weird. None of it makes any sense - a fast moving coup against an established government, an abrupt about face, and then exile into a neighboring country - only to come back “home” to pick up your prized pistol and a few other things. Oh, and also to meet up the leader you tried to overthrow.
Because it’s likely theater …
But, for what goal, though? I’m asking because I’m genuinely curious. It made Putin look weak and it really seemed like he and this crony cabinet were on the run. It’s not like Putin squashed down the rebellion in a show of force - instead, Wagner said “yeah, it’s all good, imma turn around now and peace out to Belarus. Lates”.
Did it really make him look weak, though? He’s consolidated the military under the MoD umbrella, his comradery with Lukashenko likely improved, the West is admitting that Ukraine is running out of ammo (thus the cluster ammunition) and he (or rather Lukashenko) has a strong private army close to the Ukrainian border, about 90km from Kiev.
The only people claiming his weakness were some Western officials and the press and both haven’t been particularly trustworthy nor well informed in their assessments of the situation thus far.
Edit: Not to forget that Prigozhin made it clear that his problems weren’t with Putin but with MoD leadership/Shoigu.
He’s consolidated the military under the MoD umbrella,
Has he? He lost capable military leaders from Wagner, and those forced to fight alongside Russian troops fight now alongside troops which bombed them before. I hardly imagine there is much trust or comrades between Russian military and Wagner troops.
his comradery with Lukashenko likely improved,
It strengthened Lukashenko.
the West is admitting that Ukraine is running out of ammo (thus the cluster ammunition)
… which has nothing to do with the attempted coup
and he (or rather Lukashenko) has a strong private army close to the Ukrainian border, about 90km from Kiev
It really depends if that army still fights for Putin. The smear-campaign against Prigozhin wouldn’t make sense in this scenario.
Putin looks like messing about, trying to make the best of the situation, with no clear plan. He looks weak, and maybe worse, plan-less.
You have some valid points there. In the end I don’t know more than you. :)