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We don’t meet 8 of his 13 criteria, so by his “proven method” Republicans will win.
Uh, no. He said Democrats meet 8 of 13 keys, and that’s why he thinks Harris will win.
Key 2 – No Primary Contest: With Joe Biden’s endorsement clearing the field for Harris, there are no significant challengers from within the party.
Key 4 – No Third Party: Historically, third parties are detrimental to the White House party. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would need 5% of the vote to influence this key, with a potential stabilization at 10% deemed unlikely by Lichtman.
Key 5 – Strong Short-Term Economy: No recession has been declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research this year.
Key 6 – Strong Long-Term Economy: Economic growth under Biden has exceeded that of the previous two terms, adjusted for inflation.
Key 7 – Major Policy Change: Biden’s policies mark a significant departure from the Trump administration.
Key 8 – No Social Unrest: Lichtman notes that only massive unrest, akin to the 1960s or Black Lives Matter protests, could impact this key. The current unrest is not considered significant enough.
Key 9 – No Scandal: There has been no bipartisan-recognized corruption scandal involving the president.
Key 13 – Uncharismatic Challenger: Donald Trump is perceived as unappealing to voters across party lines.
Uh, no. He said Democrats meet 8 of 13 keys, and that’s why he thinks Harris will win.