The whole concept of FIRE is that, once you can cover your expenses with your investments, you essentially provide your own income. However, stock returns aren’t stable, so the concept of what a “safe” level of withdrawal becomes complicated, especially since most information available online assumes a 30-year retirement (e.g. from 65 to 95).

For those who are newer to the concept, basically a SWR is a rate at which you should be able to withdraw from your portfolio and not run out of money before you die, with some level of success. Most analyses use a 95% success rate as the target, though your individual comfort level could certainly vary.

Here are a couple articles discussing safe withdrawal rates:

• Mad Fientist - Problem with the 4% Rule
• ERN Safe Withdrawal Rate series

I personally am in the camp that a 3.5% SWR is probably the best choice for me, but I may revise that upward based on economic conditions when I’m about to retire (i.e. Shiller CAPE ratio, my sector’s job demand, etc). Then again, I have a family to support, so the stakes for me are a bit higher than if I was single and could afford to change my lifestyle substantially as needed.

So what are your thoughts? Please ask any questions, or share your personal safe withdrawal rate target and your justification for why it makes sense.