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the polls showed Hillary was going to trounce Trump pretty handedly.
Not true. She was within the margin of error in the swing states.
I think Fivethityeight’s explanation went something like…
Don’t confuse 538’s model with polls. 538 takes polling data as an input, and then runs simulations that output the odds which side will win.
Polls don’t measure the odds a candidate will win, they measure how many people would vote a certain way if the election were held today. Predictive models take that data and do a lot more than simply average the results.
Not true. She was within the margin of error in the swing states.
Don’t confuse 538’s model with polls. 538 takes polling data as an input, and then runs simulations that output the odds which side will win.
Polls don’t measure the odds a candidate will win, they measure how many people would vote a certain way if the election were held today. Predictive models take that data and do a lot more than simply average the results.