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I mean, it’s the closest thing you have to a futures market, and if you assume that markets are efficient, you can extract information there – people do use those.
I mean, anyone. I remember when DARPA had a project to create a futures market to do geopolitical analysis (which was controversial and got shot down because a world where you can place money on a world leader being assassinated and also, you know, go out and assassinate them has certain dangerous misincentives).
I mean, it’s the closest thing you have to a futures market, and if you assume that markets are efficient, you can extract information there – people do use those.
So Wall St then. I never assume anything good from them.
I lost faith in 2008.
I mean, anyone. I remember when DARPA had a project to create a futures market to do geopolitical analysis (which was controversial and got shot down because a world where you can place money on a world leader being assassinated and also, you know, go out and assassinate them has certain dangerous misincentives).