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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez came out in support of President Joe Biden amid growing calls in the Democratic Party for Biden to drop out of the 2024 race.
The Polymarket prediction markets gives odds for who will win the presidential election and who will win the democratic nominee. We can compare the odds of each candidate and use Bayes Theorem to determine their chances of winning the presidency if they secure the DNC nomination.
Obviously this doesn’t work perfectly (the Michelle Obama example especially is bizarre), but there is over $300M behind these numbers so people seem to think they’re at least somewhat accurate.
TLDR: there is a lot of money that thinks Joe Biden is one of the worst options
The Polymarket prediction markets gives odds for who will win the presidential election and who will win the democratic nominee. We can compare the odds of each candidate and use Bayes Theorem to determine their chances of winning the presidency if they secure the DNC nomination.
Here’s the results as of posting this comment:
Joe Biden: 27% Kamala Harris: 50% Michelle Obama: 100% Gavin Newsom: 66% Other: 50%
Obviously this doesn’t work perfectly (the Michelle Obama example especially is bizarre), but there is over $300M behind these numbers so people seem to think they’re at least somewhat accurate.
TLDR: there is a lot of money that thinks Joe Biden is one of the worst options
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/09/biden-polling-debate-trump
That information doesn’t change anything I’ve said. He can be “trailing trump” and still not be the best candidate the dems could have
I think there are people on the fence (who generally decide the election) who would be swayed by Biden’s apparent dementia