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How do you figure that? Wagner faced little to no resistance all the way up, they even had local police joining their convoy. Then, it took negotiations with Belarus to get them to stop. How does that show support for Putin’s government?
To me, it sounds like Wagner didn’t really want to shed Russian blood, they simply wanted guarantees of support in the form of supplies and ammunition. They apparently got what they wanted from their talks with the Belarusian President. However, that doesn’t change the fact that many people outside of Moscow were willing to either stand by and let pass or stand with Wagner.
Literally everyone of any importance in Russia basically told the Wagnerites to listen to Putin and stand down. Even people in the street went up to them and asked them to come to their senses. The fact that this didn’t get violent is a testament to both the maturity of the Russian society in general, and the confidence of the Russian government in being in complete control as well as their ability to remain calm and not react emotionally or rashly in a crisis.
This was literally the best possible outcome. It would have only played into the hands of Russia’s enemies for anyone to try and stop the Wagnerites using force. That would have escalated into a total shitshow and would have cost Russia valuable equipment and manpower. It was vital for everyone to remain calm and do nothing that could escalate into real violence. The fry cook got nothing except for being allowed to go into exile and not be imprisoned or killed…for now.
The unity that this little temper tantrum showed exists in Russia really pours cold water on any hopes the West may have had for a real coup. The West will of course try to salvage whatever they can out of it, they will try to twist the narrative to claim that this supposedly shows that Putin is weak because he didn’t crush the mutineers with force, because he showed leniency and restraint. But that little PR win will be short lived and is ultimately a poor consolation prize considering this basically confirmed that whatever hopes they may have had for their strategy of drawing out the war until just maybe some black swan event happens in Russia that will lead to the collapse of the war effort are essentially dead.
This was their best chance of trying to precipitate an internal fracture by exploiting a crisis created by what can only be described as the mental breakdown of a degenerate lowlife with an overinflated ego, all while Ukie psyops were working overtime playing up grievances and disseminating fakes inflating the appearance of serious internal conflicts, and they failed. It turned out that the overwhelming majority of Russians - including all government and military power structures, and even the majority of Wagner - didn’t take the bait and the whole gambit fizzled out.
The fact that the Kremlin prevailed so quickly and decisively, and most importantly without loss of life, and minimal property damage and disruption to civilian life, has just massively increased the stability of the state. Another beneficial side effect is that a number of western assets will also have been burned and many fifth columnists have exposed themselves. The FSB will be busy for the next few weeks looking very closely into anyone who was a bit too enthusiastic about supporting the mutiny. There will be purges that much is sure.
And finally, this whole episode will lead to the general enthusiasm for the concept of PMCs being somewhat lessened which is always a good thing. Mercenaries are yet again proven to be unreliable scum. Russia will almost certainly incorporate them much more tightly and with much greater oversight and control into the official armed forces now to prevent other similar episodes occurring in the future, which is good for discipline and general morale.
The Kremlin didn’t prevail though, Prigozhin backed down only after speaking to Lukashenko. And we don’t know the terms that this was ended under, but it would be a safe assumption that it would involve less integration of PMC’s (or at least Wagner) than what was already happening, as this was one of the main reasons they started their march north.
Do you seriously believe that Lukashenko is just some random third party here? This was a way to provide a way out for Prigozhin and diffuse the situation.
I’m certainly not saying Lukashenko isn’t in allegiance with the Kremlin, however it’s true to say that the Kremlin didn’t negotiate down the coup. Lukashenko did.
Also it’s most likely these terms were somewhat favourable to Wagner and don’t involve its complete integration into Russia’s military and directly under MoD control.
I’m really not sure what point you’re trying to make here to be honest. Kremlin found a way to resolve the situation without bloodshed, and where Prigozhin was removed from wagner while preserving wagner as an effective organization. Wagner is in fact now signing contracts with the MoD, so yes it is directly under the control of the MoD going forward. Basically, Russia managed to resolve the situation in the best way possible.
The Kremlin didn’t find a way to resolve the situation, Lukashenko brokered a deal between Putin and Prigozhin. Without Lukashenko’s intervention the Kremlin had no way of backing down. Lukashenko is an ally of the Kremlin, but he is not the Kremlin, and the Kremlin had already taken the position of harsh punishment.
I don’t think your take is accurate. Wagner isn’t directly under the control of MoD, rather some of Wagner’s troops are being given the option of joining/signing contracts. In fact, it’s only the ones who did not take part that get this option.
The implication is that the rest of Prigozhin’s troops, perhaps his most loyal and most effective, might be going with him to Belarus.
The best way possible would have been to not have the insurrection to begin with. Ideally, by properly supplying troops as promised.
Over or just postponed?
I don’t think anything is going to happen at this point. If anything, this demonstrated that pretty much everyone is behind the government.
How do you figure that? Wagner faced little to no resistance all the way up, they even had local police joining their convoy. Then, it took negotiations with Belarus to get them to stop. How does that show support for Putin’s government?
To me, it sounds like Wagner didn’t really want to shed Russian blood, they simply wanted guarantees of support in the form of supplies and ammunition. They apparently got what they wanted from their talks with the Belarusian President. However, that doesn’t change the fact that many people outside of Moscow were willing to either stand by and let pass or stand with Wagner.
Literally everyone of any importance in Russia basically told the Wagnerites to listen to Putin and stand down. Even people in the street went up to them and asked them to come to their senses. The fact that this didn’t get violent is a testament to both the maturity of the Russian society in general, and the confidence of the Russian government in being in complete control as well as their ability to remain calm and not react emotionally or rashly in a crisis.
This was literally the best possible outcome. It would have only played into the hands of Russia’s enemies for anyone to try and stop the Wagnerites using force. That would have escalated into a total shitshow and would have cost Russia valuable equipment and manpower. It was vital for everyone to remain calm and do nothing that could escalate into real violence. The fry cook got nothing except for being allowed to go into exile and not be imprisoned or killed…for now.
The unity that this little temper tantrum showed exists in Russia really pours cold water on any hopes the West may have had for a real coup. The West will of course try to salvage whatever they can out of it, they will try to twist the narrative to claim that this supposedly shows that Putin is weak because he didn’t crush the mutineers with force, because he showed leniency and restraint. But that little PR win will be short lived and is ultimately a poor consolation prize considering this basically confirmed that whatever hopes they may have had for their strategy of drawing out the war until just maybe some black swan event happens in Russia that will lead to the collapse of the war effort are essentially dead.
This was their best chance of trying to precipitate an internal fracture by exploiting a crisis created by what can only be described as the mental breakdown of a degenerate lowlife with an overinflated ego, all while Ukie psyops were working overtime playing up grievances and disseminating fakes inflating the appearance of serious internal conflicts, and they failed. It turned out that the overwhelming majority of Russians - including all government and military power structures, and even the majority of Wagner - didn’t take the bait and the whole gambit fizzled out.
The fact that the Kremlin prevailed so quickly and decisively, and most importantly without loss of life, and minimal property damage and disruption to civilian life, has just massively increased the stability of the state. Another beneficial side effect is that a number of western assets will also have been burned and many fifth columnists have exposed themselves. The FSB will be busy for the next few weeks looking very closely into anyone who was a bit too enthusiastic about supporting the mutiny. There will be purges that much is sure.
And finally, this whole episode will lead to the general enthusiasm for the concept of PMCs being somewhat lessened which is always a good thing. Mercenaries are yet again proven to be unreliable scum. Russia will almost certainly incorporate them much more tightly and with much greater oversight and control into the official armed forces now to prevent other similar episodes occurring in the future, which is good for discipline and general morale.
The Kremlin didn’t prevail though, Prigozhin backed down only after speaking to Lukashenko. And we don’t know the terms that this was ended under, but it would be a safe assumption that it would involve less integration of PMC’s (or at least Wagner) than what was already happening, as this was one of the main reasons they started their march north.
Do you seriously believe that Lukashenko is just some random third party here? This was a way to provide a way out for Prigozhin and diffuse the situation.
I’m certainly not saying Lukashenko isn’t in allegiance with the Kremlin, however it’s true to say that the Kremlin didn’t negotiate down the coup. Lukashenko did.
Also it’s most likely these terms were somewhat favourable to Wagner and don’t involve its complete integration into Russia’s military and directly under MoD control.
I’m really not sure what point you’re trying to make here to be honest. Kremlin found a way to resolve the situation without bloodshed, and where Prigozhin was removed from wagner while preserving wagner as an effective organization. Wagner is in fact now signing contracts with the MoD, so yes it is directly under the control of the MoD going forward. Basically, Russia managed to resolve the situation in the best way possible.
I’ll distill it down for you: