The most powerful countries have benefited from large work forces for decades. What happens when they retire?
  • World demographics have changed: Europe is shrinking, China and India are aging.
  • By 2050, people aged 65+ will make up almost 40% of the population in parts of East Asia and Europe.
  • An aging world is a triumph of development, but demographics do not guarantee economic growth.
  • Aging countries must rethink pensions, immigration policies and life in old age.
  • Asian countries are aging faster and getting rich earlier.
  • In low-income countries, workers are not protected by a secure pension system.
  • Aging is a huge achievement despite the challenges.
  • The choice of behavior and public policy is of great importance for the future of society.
  • radix@lemm.ee
    2·
    1 year ago

    Here’s what I got from Firefox Nightly’s reader view:

    How a Vast Demographic Shift Will Reshape the World Lauren Leatherby 10 - 13 minutes

    Source: U.N. World Population Prospects 2022 Young populations are those in which at least a quarter of the population is under age 15. In old populations, at least a quarter of the population is 65 or older.

    The world’s demographics have already been transformed. Europe is shrinking. China is shrinking, with India, a much younger country, overtaking it this year as the world’s most populous nation.

    But what we’ve seen so far is just the beginning.

    The projections are reliable, and stark: By 2050, people age 65 and older will make up nearly 40 percent of the population in some parts of East Asia and Europe. That’s almost twice the share of older adults in Florida, America’s retirement capital. Extraordinary numbers of retirees will be dependent on a shrinking number of working-age people to support them.

    In all of recorded history, no country has ever been as old as these nations are expected to get.

    As a result, experts predict, things many wealthier countries take for granted — like pensions, retirement ages and strict immigration policies — will need overhauls to be sustainable. And today’s wealthier countries will almost inevitably make up a smaller share of global G.D.P., economists say.

    This is a sea change for Europe, the United States, China and other top economies, which have had some of the most working-age people in the world, adjusted for their populations. Their large work forces have helped to drive their economic growth.

    Those countries are already aging off the list. Soon, the best-balanced work forces will mostly be in South and Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East, according to U.N. projections. The shift could reshape economic growth and geopolitical power balances, experts say. Largest working-age share of population

    Top 10 largest economies today

    Sources: U.N. World Population Prospects, World Bank Graphic includes countries with at least 50 million people in 2023. Largest economies are determined by gross domestic product.

    In many respects, the aging of the world is a triumph of development. People are living longer, healthier lives and having fewer children as they get richer.

    The opportunity for many poorer countries is enormous. When birth rates fall, countries can reap a “demographic dividend,” when a growing share of workers and few dependents fuel economic growth. Adults with smaller families have more free time for education and investing in their children. More women tend to enter the work force, compounding the economic boost.

    Demography isn’t destiny, and the dividend isn’t automatic. Without jobs, having a lot of working-age people can drive instability rather than growth. And even as they age, rich countries will enjoy economic advantages and a high standard of living for a long time.

    But the economic logic of age is hard to escape.

    “All of these changes should never surprise anyone. But they do,” said Mikko Myrskylä, director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. “And that’s not because we didn’t know. It’s because politically it’s so difficult to react.” The Opportunity of Youth 50 youngest countries in 2050

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