The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.
  • red_october@reddthat.comEnglish
    8·
    11 months ago

    If the records shattered this year tell us anything, it is that these models are too optimistic. Undoubtedly, this will occur during our lives.

    • guriinii@lemmy.worldEnglish
      1·
      11 months ago

      Yeah, I know it’s a bit of a meme within the community. But surely scientists should start modelling in ‘faster than expected’ to get more accurate results.

  • chuckleslord@lemmy.worldEnglish
    7·
    11 months ago

    Tl;dr, AMOC collapse extremely likely (95% confidence) from 2025-2095. So, within many people’s lifetimes.

    • eleitl@lemmy.worldEnglish
      2·
      11 months ago

      It doesn’t stop overnight. In fact it has noticeably slowed down already. Of course the process becomes quicker when Greenland freshwater runoff becomes massive.

  • brainfreeze@kbin.social
    1·
    11 months ago

    That’s a pretty good spread of years, though. Is that something that they can reduce with more data or technological advances?