Intelligence agencies concluded that granting Ukraine’s request to use Western missiles against targets deep in Russia could prompt forceful retaliation while not fundamentally changing the course of the war.
U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to employ U.S., British and French-supplied long-range missiles for strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. officials said.
The intelligence assessment, which has not been previously reported, also plays down the effect that the long-range missiles will have on the course of the conflict because the Ukrainians currently have limited numbers of the weapons and it is unclear how many more, if any, the Western allies might provide.
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The findings may help explain in part why the decision has been so difficult for Mr. Biden to make, and show the internal pressures on him to say no to Mr. Zelensky’s request. U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters and internal deliberations, said it remained unclear what Mr. Biden would decide to do.
Forget a no-fly zone; if Russia strikes a NATO country most of the West will be going to war.
I’m torn on the matter for the obvious and horrific implications of war, but at this point I’m not sure it’d be the worst outcome. The invasion of Ukraine is utterly heartbreaking and setting the scene for a century or more of militarism and conquest by undemocratic states. Being gripped by fear of war now is going to condemn future generations to much worse, and it’s going to seem absurd to them looking back at why we didn’t prevent it now, with our tentative, sometimes faltering support for the multiple liberal-democracies facing conflict and the threat of conflict from undemocratic states right now.
Sooner or later the world is going to have to contend with this. I just hope it won’t be too late for Ukraine.