They still have to form a coalition with other parties to get over 50% to form a ruling coalition.
If they don’t ally with either of the Russian-backed anti-Ukraine parties AFD (right) and BSW (left), it’ll take just about everyone else to get over 50%
It’s worse than that. The numbers I originally posted was only the exit poll. Now we have a preliminary result and it’s not looking good.
Here are the results:
Parties with less than 5% of the vote share don’t get any seats (there are exceptions but these don’t apply here, resulting in this makeup of state parliament:
You need 45 seats to have a governing majority. SPD and CDU together have only 44. There is no majority without either the fascists from the AFD or the tankies from the BSW.
Barely, and depending on the source, the greens might not make it, which essentally leads to a “everyone but the open fascists” coalition, which will get exactly nothing done - which will boost the fascists even further, since democratic parties obviously get nothing done.